Germán Vargas Lleras’s radical change

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Germán Vargas Lleras’s statement claiming his party “Radical Change won’t become an obstacle for the approval” of the referendum seeking to allow another presidential re-election is still causing stir in the Colombian political world, specially because their support is unconditional, that is, the party agreed to approve the law project during its Senate proceedings "with no conditions." In other words, they will support changing the question (“had held” would become “had been elected”) which will open doors for President Uribe’s second re-election in 2010.

Why did Vargas Lleras give in?

The answer is hard for such a skilled politician, who has faced several storms during his public life, always emerging victorious from them: a survival question. After the division threat, when an important number of the centre-right Radical Change party he leads allied with Uribe, group headed by the unruly Roy Barreras, and the clarification made during last weekend’s party congress, thanks to former president of the Congress Nancy Patricia Gutiérrez, that it can’t become an enemy of Uribe, made Mr Vargas Lleras clearly see that, outside the support by Gaviria, Alfonso Valdivieso, and Germán Varón, the others were completely ‘Uribistas’.

If he had persisted in going against the tide, he would have run the risk not only of dividing his party, but also complicating his presidential candidacy and, besides, to cap it all, his authority within the party would have remain battered and, even worse, would open doors for former Environment Minister Juan Lozano, a staunch ally of the President, to take the direction by storm.

It was a tough decision, but Mr Vargas Lleras got what he desperately needs right now: time. With his supporters aligned for now, he can weather the storm and wait with blind faith the referendum to be defeated, either in the Constitutional Court or in the polls by the people if, as it can be predicted, the economical crisis worsening this year and the usual and traditional electoral abstention make the 7 millions and something of voters needed to stay at home.

With no referendum in the way, it is likely the rebel Congresspeople, whose loyalty is tied to the victory, come to close ranks in support of Vargas Lleras, taking his presidential candidacy up again, with good options of winning against the patchwork quilt of the party Uribe intends to create in order to unite his supporters, a Conservative party hungry for playing power by itself, a Liberal party short of ideas and charismatic leaders, and a Colombian left divided for the umpteenth time.

Forced by circumstances and with a risky bet whose results are up to third parties, Vargas Lleras is taking the gamble. But, just like the others, he prays for the Uribista contamination not to destroy his own aspirations.

For now, as controversial former presidential adviser José Obdulio Gaviria says, Radical Change’s boss is President Uribe.

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This article was originally published 19 March 2009 in equinoXio. Translated from Spanish by Julián Ortega Martínez

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